NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Oct 25 · 17:00 · Ferencváros TC vs MTK Budapest
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 72%
Likely score: 2–0
A 72% home win. The market says 68%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ferencváros TC72%68%+4
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−2
OursMarket
MTK Budapest12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ferencváros TC
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Kisvárda FC (A)1-1
- Oct 15 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Debreceni VSC (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Celtic (A)3-1
MTK Budapest
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 16 · v Vasas (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Paksi FC (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v ETO FC Győr (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Mezőkövesd Zsóry (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Kisvárda FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Ferencváros TC | MTK Budapest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-0 | 1-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.