Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · Ferencváros TC vs Torreense
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 72%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ferencváros TC72%69%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%19%−2
OursMarket
Torreense11%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ferencváros TC
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Kisvárda FC (A)1-1
- Oct 15 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Debreceni VSC (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Celtic (A)3-1
Torreense
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 15 · v Sunderland (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Tondela (A)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Leixões SC (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Benfica B U21 (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Ferencváros TC | Torreense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.