NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Sep 6 · 15:45 · Ferencváros TC vs Újpest
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 65%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ferencváros TC65%68%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Újpest18%13%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 64% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 87% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 32% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 84% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ferencváros TC
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 3 · at ETO FC Győr (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · at Puskás Akadémia (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · v Trabzonspor (H)4-0
- Aug 20 · at Trabzonspor (A)1-0
- Aug 17 · at Zalaegerszegi TE (A)1-0
Újpest
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 29 · v Vasas (H)3-1
- Aug 21 · at Paksi FC (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v MTK Budapest (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Kisvárda FC (A)4-2
- Aug 2 · v Debreceni VSC (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Ferencváros TC | Újpest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.