Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · Ferencváros TC vs Viktoria Plzeň
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ferencváros TC49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Viktoria Plzeň26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ferencváros TC
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Debreceni VSC (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Celtic (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Debreceni EAC (A)7-0
- Sep 6 · v Újpest (H)2-2
Viktoria Plzeň
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Mladá Boleslav (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · v SK Sigma Olomouc (H)2-3
- Sep 9 · at FC Hradec Králové (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Ferencváros TC | Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-0 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.