Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Ferrocarril Midland vs Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta
Likeliest: Ferrocarril Midland win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ferrocarril Midland47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+2
OursMarket
Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta21%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 28% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 37% | 35% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ferrocarril Midland
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at San Martín de Tucumán (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Atlético de Rafaela (H)4-0
- Oct 3 · at Agropecuario Argentino (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Tristán Suárez (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Güemes (A)2-0
Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Atlanta (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Gimnasia Jujuy (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at San Martín de Tucumán (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v Atlético de Rafaela (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Agropecuario Argentino (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Ferrocarril Midland | Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-1 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.