Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 22 · 13:30 · Feyenoord vs Ajax
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 49%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord54%49%+5
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Ajax24%27%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 51% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 65% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Mar 15 · v Excelsior (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at NAC Breda (A)3-3
- Mar 1 · at FC Twente (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v Telstar (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-0
Ajax
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Mar 14 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-0
- Mar 7 · at FC Groningen (A)1-3
- Mar 1 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-0
- Feb 21 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.