Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 10 · 14:45 · Feyenoord vs AZ
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord55%51%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
AZ24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 49% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 67% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- May 3 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v FC Groningen (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · at FC Volendam (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Ajax (H)1-1
AZ
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- May 3 · v FC Twente (H)2-2
- Apr 23 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)5-1
- Apr 16 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)2-2
- Apr 12 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.