Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:45 · Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord53%52%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
AZ Alkmaar23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · v FC Utrecht (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at PEC Zwolle (A)7-0
- Sep 9 · at Barcelona (A)1-5
- Sep 5 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-2
AZ Alkmaar
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · v SC Telstar (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at SC Heerenveen (A)3-2
- Aug 29 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.