Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:30 · Feyenoord vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 53%
A 25% away win. The market says 21%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord53%57%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
FC Groningen25%21%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 43% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 74% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 12 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · at FC Volendam (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Ajax (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · v Excelsior (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at NAC Breda (A)3-3
FC Groningen
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Apr 11 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-0
- Apr 4 · at Telstar (A)2-0
- Mar 22 · v AZ (H)3-0
- Mar 13 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Ajax (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.