Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 21 · 13:30 · Feyenoord vs FC Twente
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 53%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 61%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord53%56%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
FC Twente26%21%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 79% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 73% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Dec 17 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-3
- Dec 14 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- Dec 11 · at FCSB (A)3-4
- Dec 6 · v PEC Zwolle (H)6-1
- Nov 30 · at Telstar (A)2-1
FC Twente
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Dec 18 · at Spakenburg (A)6-3
- Dec 14 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-0
- Dec 7 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-1
- Nov 30 · v AZ (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at FC Volendam (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.