Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 16 · 12:30 · Feyenoord vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 68%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord68%69%−1
OursMarket
Draw18%17%+1
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles14%13%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 70% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 87% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 31% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 83% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 84% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 9 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-0
- May 17 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-0
- May 10 · v AZ (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v FC Groningen (H)3-1
Go Ahead Eagles
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 8 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)4-1
- May 17 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-2
- May 10 · v PSV (H)1-4
- May 3 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-2
- Apr 23 · v AZ (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.