Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · Feyenoord vs Inter Milan
Likeliest: Inter Milan win · 60%
Likely scores: 1–2 14% · 1–1 9% · 0–1 8%
A 60% away win. The market says 56%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Inter Milan60%56%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 31 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-1
- Oct 25 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
- Oct 21 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- Oct 17 · at SC Telstar (A)4-3
- Oct 14 · v Como (H)3-2
Inter Milan
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Nov 1 · v Lazio (H)3-0
- Oct 31 · at AC Milan (A)1-3
- Oct 28 · at Venezia (A)2-0
- Oct 25 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
- Oct 24 · at Napoli (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | Inter Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.