Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Nov 23 · 13:30 · Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 65%
We make it 73% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 68%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord65%67%−2
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen17%14%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 68% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 86% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 33% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 82% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Nov 9 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-2
- Nov 6 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v FC Volendam (H)3-1
- Oct 26 · v PSV (H)2-3
- Oct 23 · v Panathinaikos (H)3-1
NEC Nijmegen
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Nov 9 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-1
- Oct 30 · at Rijnsburgse Boys (A)3-2
- Oct 25 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-2
- Oct 18 · v FC Twente (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.