KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Wed, Dec 17 · 20:00 · Feyenoord vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord60%61%−2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen20%17%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 39% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 78% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Dec 14 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- Dec 11 · at FCSB (A)3-4
- Dec 6 · v PEC Zwolle (H)6-1
- Nov 30 · at Telstar (A)2-1
- Nov 27 · v Celtic (H)1-3
SC Heerenveen
LossWinLossLossWin
- Dec 14 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-0
- Dec 6 · v PSV (H)0-2
- Nov 28 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · v AZ (H)3-1
- Nov 8 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.