Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Jan 18 · 15:45 · Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 50%
A 27% away win. The market says 13%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Feyenoord50%69%−20
OursMarket
Draw24%18%+6
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam27%13%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 87% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 31% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 82% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 85% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Feyenoord
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Jan 11 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-2
- Dec 21 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Dec 17 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-3
- Dec 14 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- Dec 11 · at FCSB (A)3-4
Sparta Rotterdam
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Jan 15 · v FC Volendam (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-0
- Dec 21 · at FC Volendam (A)1-0
- Dec 18 · at Willem II (A)5-1
- Dec 14 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Feyenoord | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.