Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · FF Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn
Likeliest: FF Jaro win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 55%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FF Jaro40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
IFK Mariehamn31%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 52% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FF Jaro
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at TPS (A)1-0
- Sep 18 · at FC Lahti (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v SJK (H)1-1
- Sep 8 · at Ilves (A)0-2
- Aug 31 · at IFK Mariehamn (A)0-2
IFK Mariehamn
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Ilves (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at SJK (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v TPS (H)1-0
- Sep 8 · at FC Lahti (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v FF Jaro (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FF Jaro | IFK Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-0-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.