Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · FH Hafnarfjörður vs Þór Akureyri
Likeliest: FH Hafnarfjörður win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FH Hafnarfjörður47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Þór Akureyri29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FH Hafnarfjörður
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · at Valur Reykjavík (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Stjarnan Garðabær (H)5-2
- Sep 13 · v KA Akureyri (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Þór Akureyri (A)0-1
Þór Akureyri
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Stjarnan Garðabær (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at KA Akureyri (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Valur Reykjavík (A)1-4
- Sep 6 · v FH Hafnarfjörður (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | FH Hafnarfjörður | Þór Akureyri |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.