Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sun, Sep 20 · 16:00 · FH Hafnarfjörður vs Stjarnan Garðabær
Likeliest: Stjarnan Garðabær win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FH Hafnarfjörður34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Stjarnan Garðabær41%39%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FH Hafnarfjörður
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 13 · v KA Akureyri (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Þór Akureyri (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Keflavík IF (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at ÍA Akranes (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Víkingur Reykjavík (H)2-4
Stjarnan Garðabær
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)2-2
- Aug 31 · at Breidablik Kópavogur (A)2-0
- Aug 23 · v Þór Akureyri (H)4-2
- Aug 17 · at Fram Reykjavík (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FH Hafnarfjörður | Stjarnan Garðabær |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.