UEFA Nations League · Sat, Oct 3 · 13:00 · Finland vs Albania
Likeliest: Finland win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Finland37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Albania31%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Finland
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 29 · v Belarus (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at San Marino (A)7-0
- Jun 5 · at Hungary (A)1-2
- May 31 · at Germany (A)0-4
- Mar 27 · at New Zealand (A)2-0
Albania
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 29 · at San Marino (A)3-0
- Sep 26 · v Belarus (H)2-0
- Jun 6 · v Luxembourg (H)0-1
- Jun 3 · v Israel (H)0-1
- Mar 31 · at Ukraine (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Finland | Albania |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 6-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 22% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 44% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.