Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:45 · Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers
Likeliest: Bray Wanderers win · 71%
Likely score: 1–2
A 71% away win. The market says 67%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Finn Harps11%14%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%0
OursMarket
Bray Wanderers71%67%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 29% | 33% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 86% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Finn Harps
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 9 · at Cork City (A)0-2
- Oct 2 · v Kerry FC (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Treaty United FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Longford Town (H)0-1
- Sep 11 · at Wexford FC (A)3-1
Bray Wanderers
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 9 · v Wexford FC (H)2-2
- Oct 2 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)1-4
- Sep 25 · at University College Dublin (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Treaty United FC (H)2-0
- Sep 11 · at Kerry FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Finn Harps | Bray Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-7 | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.