Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 2 · 18:45 · Finn Harps vs Kerry FC
Likeliest: Kerry FC win · 48%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Finn Harps24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Kerry FC48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 38% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Finn Harps
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 25 · at Treaty United FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Longford Town (H)0-1
- Sep 11 · at Wexford FC (A)3-1
- Sep 4 · v Athlone Town (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at University College Dublin (A)4-5
Kerry FC
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Wexford FC (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Athlone Town (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Bray Wanderers (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Longford Town (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Treaty United FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Finn Harps | Kerry FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-6 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.