Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:45 · Finn Harps vs Longford Town
Likeliest: Longford Town win · 52%
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Finn Harps21%23%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Longford Town52%51%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 77% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Finn Harps
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 11 · at Wexford FC (A)3-1
- Sep 4 · v Athlone Town (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at University College Dublin (A)4-5
- Aug 21 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)1-3
- Aug 7 · at Bray Wanderers (A)0-5
Longford Town
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Treaty United FC (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Kerry FC (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Bray Wanderers (H)4-2
- Aug 7 · at Athlone Town (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Finn Harps | Longford Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-8 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-5 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.