Serie A (Italy) · Fri, May 22 · 18:45 · Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 39%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina39%35%+5
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Atalanta34%38%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 60% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 62% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 47% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- May 17 · at Juventus (A)2-0
- May 10 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- May 4 · at Roma (A)0-4
- Apr 26 · v Sassuolo (H)0-0
- Apr 20 · at Lecce (A)1-1
Atalanta
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- May 17 · v Bologna (H)0-1
- May 10 · at AC Milan (A)3-2
- May 2 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- Apr 27 · at Cagliari (A)2-3
- Apr 22 · v Lazio (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.