Coppa Italia (Italy) · Tue, Jan 27 · 20:00 · Fiorentina vs Como
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 27%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina37%27%+10
OursMarket
Draw28%27%0
OursMarket
Como35%46%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 54% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 73% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 37% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Jan 24 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at Bologna (A)2-1
- Jan 11 · v AC Milan (H)1-1
- Jan 7 · at Lazio (A)2-2
- Jan 4 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
Como
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Jan 24 · v Torino (H)6-0
- Jan 19 · at Lazio (A)3-0
- Jan 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-3
- Jan 10 · v Bologna (H)1-1
- Jan 6 · at Pisa (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.