Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Aug 29 · 16:30 · Fiorentina vs Frosinone
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 48%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina48%59%−11
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Frosinone26%18%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 53% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 82% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 41% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 76% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 24 · at Roma (A)0-4
- Aug 14 · v Benevento (H)4-1
- May 22 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Juventus (A)2-0
- May 10 · v Genoa (H)0-0
Frosinone
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 23 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Juve Stabia (H)4-1
- May 8 · v Mantova (H)5-0
- May 1 · at Juve Stabia (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · v Carrarese (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.