Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 10 · 13:00 · Fiorentina vs Genoa
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 50%
We make it 61% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina50%47%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Genoa25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 46% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- May 4 · at Roma (A)0-4
- Apr 26 · v Sassuolo (H)0-0
- Apr 20 · at Lecce (A)1-1
- Apr 16 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Apr 13 · v Lazio (H)1-0
Genoa
LossWinWinLossDraw
- May 2 · at Atalanta (A)0-0
- Apr 26 · v Como (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · at Pisa (A)2-1
- Apr 12 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Juventus (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.