Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 14 · 14:00 · Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 46%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina51%46%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Hellas Verona23%25%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 65% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Dec 11 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Sassuolo (A)1-3
- Nov 30 · at Atalanta (A)0-2
- Nov 27 · v AEK Athens (H)0-1
- Nov 22 · v Juventus (H)1-1
Hellas Verona
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Dec 6 · v Atalanta (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · v Parma (H)1-2
- Nov 8 · at Lecce (A)0-0
- Nov 2 · v Inter (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.