Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 22 · 19:45 · Fiorentina vs Inter
Likeliest: Inter win · 40%
A 33% home win. The market says 18%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina33%18%+15
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+4
OursMarket
Inter40%58%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 42% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 82% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 24% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 19 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)2-1
- Mar 16 · at Cremonese (A)4-1
- Mar 12 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · v Parma (H)0-0
- Mar 2 · at Udinese (A)0-3
Inter
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Mar 14 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at AC Milan (A)0-1
- Mar 3 · at Como (A)0-0
- Feb 28 · v Genoa (H)2-0
- Feb 24 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.