Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Nov 22 · 17:00 · Fiorentina vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 53%
A 53% away win. The market says 47%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina24%25%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−5
OursMarket
Juventus53%47%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 53% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Nov 9 · at Genoa (A)2-2
- Nov 6 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
- Nov 2 · v Lecce (H)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Inter (A)0-3
- Oct 26 · v Bologna (H)2-2
Juventus
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Nov 8 · v Torino (H)0-0
- Nov 4 · v Sporting CP (H)1-1
- Nov 1 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
- Oct 29 · v Udinese (H)3-1
- Oct 26 · at Lazio (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.