Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Apr 13 · 18:45 · Fiorentina vs Lazio
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina41%41%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%31%−4
OursMarket
Lazio32%28%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 50% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 59% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Apr 9 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-3
- Apr 4 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Mar 22 · v Inter (H)1-1
- Mar 19 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)2-1
- Mar 16 · at Cremonese (A)4-1
Lazio
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 4 · v Parma (H)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Bologna (A)2-0
- Mar 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
- Mar 9 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Atalanta (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.