Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Feb 28 · 19:45 · Fiorentina vs Lecce
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 62%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Fiorentina62%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Lecce14%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Feb 23 · at Hellas Verona (A)0-1
- Feb 16 · v Como (H)0-2
- Feb 10 · at Inter (A)1-2
- Feb 6 · v Inter (H)3-0
- Feb 2 · v Genoa (H)2-1
Lecce
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 21 · v Udinese (H)0-1
- Feb 16 · at Monza (A)0-0
- Feb 9 · v Bologna (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Parma (A)3-1
- Jan 26 · v Inter (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-5 | 2-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.