Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Nov 2 · 14:00 · Fiorentina vs Lecce
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Fiorentina55%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
Lecce23%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 29 · at Inter (A)0-3
- Oct 26 · v Bologna (H)2-2
- Oct 23 · at SK Rapid (A)3-0
- Oct 19 · at Milan (A)1-2
- Oct 5 · v Roma (H)1-2
Lecce
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 28 · v Napoli (H)0-1
- Oct 25 · at Udinese (A)2-3
- Oct 18 · v Sassuolo (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Parma (A)1-0
- Sep 28 · v Bologna (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.