Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 8 · 14:00 · Fiorentina vs Parma
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 47%
A 29% away win. The market says 19%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina47%55%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Parma29%19%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 81% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 74% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Mar 2 · at Udinese (A)0-3
- Feb 26 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-4
- Feb 23 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Feb 19 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)3-0
- Feb 14 · at Como (A)2-1
Parma
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Feb 27 · v Cagliari (H)1-1
- Feb 22 · at AC Milan (A)1-0
- Feb 15 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · at Bologna (A)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Juventus (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.