Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Feb 23 · 17:30 · Fiorentina vs Pisa
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 51%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina51%57%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Pisa26%18%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 82% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 43% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 76% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Feb 19 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)3-0
- Feb 14 · at Como (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · v Torino (H)2-2
- Jan 31 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Jan 27 · v Como (H)1-3
Pisa
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Feb 13 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
- Feb 6 · at Hellas Verona (A)0-0
- Jan 31 · v Sassuolo (H)1-3
- Jan 23 · at Inter (A)2-6
- Jan 16 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 0-7-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.