Coppa Italia (Italy) · Tue, Sep 15 · 19:00 · Fiorentina vs Pisa
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 69%
A 69% home win. The market says 63%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina69%63%+5
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−2
OursMarket
Pisa13%16%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 37% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 79% | +5 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
WinLossLossLossWin
- Sep 11 · at Venezia (A)4-2
- Sep 5 · v Torino (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Frosinone (H)0-3
- Aug 24 · at Roma (A)0-4
- Aug 14 · v Benevento (H)4-1
Pisa
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 11 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-4
- Sep 6 · at Juve Stabia (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · v Catanzaro (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Padova (H)0-1
- Aug 17 · v Empoli (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.