Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 26 · 10:30 · Fiorentina vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 42%
A 32% away win. The market says 24%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina42%48%−6
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Sassuolo32%24%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 76% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 67% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Apr 20 · at Lecce (A)1-1
- Apr 16 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Apr 13 · v Lazio (H)1-0
- Apr 9 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-3
- Apr 4 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
Sassuolo
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 17 · v Como (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Mar 15 · v Bologna (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.