Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 7 · 19:45 · Fiorentina vs Torino
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 51%
A 25% away win. The market says 19%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina51%55%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Torino25%19%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 81% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 74% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Jan 31 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Jan 27 · v Como (H)1-3
- Jan 24 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at Bologna (A)2-1
- Jan 11 · v AC Milan (H)1-1
Torino
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Feb 4 · at Inter (A)1-2
- Feb 1 · v Lecce (H)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Como (A)0-6
- Jan 18 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Jan 13 · at Roma (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.