Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Sep 5 · 13:00 · Fiorentina vs Torino
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 51%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−4
OursMarket
Torino25%21%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 79% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 70% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Aug 29 · v Frosinone (H)0-3
- Aug 24 · at Roma (A)0-4
- Aug 14 · v Benevento (H)4-1
- May 22 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Juventus (A)2-0
Torino
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 1 · v Monza (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Carrarese (H)1-0
- May 24 · v Juventus (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.