Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 21 · 17:00 · Fiorentina vs Udinese
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 62%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fiorentina62%42%+21
OursMarket
Draw20%30%−10
OursMarket
Udinese18%29%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 71% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 58% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 70% | +10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 59% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fiorentina
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Dec 18 · at Lausanne Sport (A)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
- Dec 11 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Sassuolo (A)1-3
- Nov 30 · at Atalanta (A)0-2
Udinese
LossWinLossLossWin
- Dec 14 · v Napoli (H)1-0
- Dec 8 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Dec 2 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Bologna (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Fiorentina | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.