2. Liga (Austria) · Sat, Aug 1 · 16:30 · First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II
Likeliest: First Vienna win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 53%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
First Vienna59%53%+6
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Sturm Graz II19%23%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 47% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 70% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.