Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · FK Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS
Likeliest: FK Borac Banja Luka win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Borac Banja Luka46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
KuPS26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Borac Banja Luka
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 15 · at Panathinaikos (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · v Víkingur Reykjavík (H)0-0
- Aug 20 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)3-1
- Aug 13 · at ML Vitebsk (A)0-1
- Aug 6 · v ML Vitebsk (H)1-0
KuPS
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v VPS (H)2-0
- Oct 15 · v Trabzonspor (H)2-4
- Oct 11 · at Inter Turku (A)0-1
- Oct 8 · v AC Oulu (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at VPS (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | FK Borac Banja Luka | KuPS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.