Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · FK Crvena zvezda vs FC København
Likeliest: FK Crvena zvezda win · 36%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Crvena zvezda36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
FC København36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Crvena zvezda
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v FK Mladost Lučani (H)5-1
- Oct 15 · at FC Lugano (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at FK Radnički 1923 (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v FK Radnički Niš (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)2-1
FC København
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v AGF (H)1-1
- Oct 15 · v Sporting Braga (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at FC Midtjylland (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Brøndby IF (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Skovshoved (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | FK Crvena zvezda | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.