Superliga (Serbia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:00 · FK Crvena zvezda vs FK Mladost Lučani
Likeliest: FK Crvena zvezda win · 88%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 88% for the home win. The market says 85%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Crvena zvezda88%85%+3
OursMarket
Draw8%10%−2
OursMarket
FK Mladost Lučani4%5%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 12% | 15% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 94% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Crvena zvezda
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at FC Lugano (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at FK Radnički 1923 (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v FK Radnički Niš (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at FK IMT Beograd (A)1-0
FK Mladost Lučani
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 12 · v OFK Beograd (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at FK Mačva Šabac (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at FK Radnički 1923 (A)0-5
- Sep 5 · v FK Radnički Niš (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at FK IMT Beograd (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FK Crvena zvezda | FK Mladost Lučani |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-1 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.