Superliga (Serbia) · Sun, Sep 6 · 17:00 · FK Crvena zvezda vs FK Partizan
Likeliest: FK Crvena zvezda win · 51%
A 24% away win. The market says 13%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Crvena zvezda51%70%−19
OursMarket
Draw25%17%+8
OursMarket
FK Partizan24%13%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 74% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 63% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 87% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 30% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 83% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 84% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Crvena zvezda
LossWinWinLossWin
- Aug 30 · at FK Zemun (A)2-0
- Aug 27 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)1-4
- Aug 23 · v FK Čukarički (H)4-0
- Aug 20 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)3-0
- Aug 11 · v Hapoel Be'er Sheva (H)0-2
FK Partizan
LossLossLossWinWin
- Aug 31 · v OFK Beograd (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v Getafe (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at FK Mladost Lučani (A)1-3
- Aug 20 · at Getafe (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v FK Radnički 1923 (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FK Crvena zvezda | FK Partizan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-1 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.