Superliga (Serbia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 15:00 · FK Čukarički vs FK Mačva Šabac
Likeliest: FK Čukarički win · 69%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Čukarički69%74%−5
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
FK Mačva Šabac9%7%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 93% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 26% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 91% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Čukarički
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v FK Novi Pazar (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v FK Vojvodina (H)0-5
- Aug 23 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)0-4
FK Mačva Šabac
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v FK Mladost Lučani (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v FK Radnički 1923 (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v FK Radnički Niš (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | FK Čukarički | FK Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.