Superliga (Serbia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · FK Čukarički vs FK Zemun
Likeliest: FK Čukarički win · 69%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Čukarički69%67%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
FK Zemun13%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 33% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Čukarički
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v FK Mačva Šabac (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v FK Novi Pazar (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v FK Vojvodina (H)0-5
FK Zemun
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v FK Železničar Pančevo (H)0-3
- Sep 19 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v FK Radnik Surdulica (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FK Vojvodina (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | FK Čukarički | FK Zemun |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.