First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:00 · FK Dunav Ruse vs FK Spartak Varna
Likeliest: FK Dunav Ruse win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Dunav Ruse37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+1
OursMarket
FK Spartak Varna32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Dunav Ruse
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 11 · at FK Septemvri Sofia (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)1-2
- Sep 7 · v Slavia Sofia (H)0-1
- Aug 31 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)2-2
FK Spartak Varna
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Botev Vratsa (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Slavia Sofia (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v CSKA Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Ludogorets (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FK Dunav Ruse | FK Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.