3rd Division, Group 5 (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · FK Fauske/Sprint vs Harstad IL
Likeliest: Harstad IL win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK Fauske/Sprint22%20%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%20%+4
OursMarket
Harstad IL55%61%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 39% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 80% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 24% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK Fauske/Sprint
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 4 · at Skjervøy (A)0-3
- Sep 27 · v Tromsø IL II (H)0-3
- Sep 20 · at Lillestrøm SK 2 (A)4-2
- Sep 14 · v Strømsgodset II (H)5-3
- Sep 5 · at IL Ulfstind (A)6-1
Harstad IL
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 4 · v Skedsmo (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Kongsvinger 2 (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Skjetten (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v IL Ulfstind (H)6-1
- Sep 6 · at Tromsø IL II (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FK Fauske/Sprint | Harstad IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 4.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.