Superliga (Serbia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · FK IMT Beograd vs FK Radnik Surdulica
Likeliest: FK IMT Beograd win · 48%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK IMT Beograd48%51%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
FK Radnik Surdulica22%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 70% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK IMT Beograd
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 19 · at FK Vojvodina (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-1
- Sep 7 · at OFK Beograd (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v FK Mladost Lučani (H)2-0
- Aug 22 · at FK Radnički 1923 (A)1-2
FK Radnik Surdulica
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v FK Partizan (H)4-4
- Sep 14 · at FK Zemun (A)1-1
- Sep 10 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · v FK Čukarički (H)3-1
- Aug 29 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | FK IMT Beograd | FK Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.