Superliga (Serbia) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:00 · FK IMT Beograd vs FK Železničar Pančevo
Likeliest: FK IMT Beograd win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A 50% home win. The market says 35%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FK IMT Beograd50%35%+14
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
FK Železničar Pančevo23%36%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 44% | +10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 64% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 65% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 50% | +19 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FK IMT Beograd
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · at FK Novi Pazar (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v FK Radnik Surdulica (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FK Vojvodina (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-1
- Sep 7 · at OFK Beograd (A)1-1
FK Železničar Pančevo
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v FK Partizan (H)1-0
- Oct 11 · at FK Zemun (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v FK Čukarički (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · v FK Mačva Šabac (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FK IMT Beograd | FK Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.